Abstract
The last decade has seen the rise of immense online social networks (OSNs)
such as MySpace and Facebook. In this paper we use epidemiological models to
explain user adoption and abandonment of OSNs, where adoption is analogous to
infection and abandonment is analogous to recovery. We modify the traditional
SIR model of disease spread by incorporating infectious recovery dynamics such
that contact between a recovered and infected member of the population is
required for recovery. The proposed infectious recovery SIR model (irSIR model)
is validated using publicly available Google search query data for "MySpace" as
a case study of an OSN that has exhibited both adoption and abandonment phases.
The irSIR model is then applied to search query data for "Facebook," which is
just beginning to show the onset of an abandonment phase. Extrapolating the
best fit model into the future predicts a rapid decline in Facebook activity in
the next few years.
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